AGOS
Date
2026-04-11
Phase
Phase 0
Verdict
unknown

Paper Trading Initial Review

Date: 2026-04-11
Review Period: ~18 hours (2026-04-11 02:45 UTC to present)
System: Agos hourly paper trading (apps/trader/run.py)

Summary

The paper trading system has been operational for approximately 18 hours since initial deployment. The EMA crossover strategy (EMA9/EMA50 on 1h candles) has generated 5 signals resulting in 4 positions and 2 completed trades.

Signals Generated

| Time (UTC) | Symbol | Signal | Price | Fast EMA | Slow EMA | |------------|--------|--------|-------|----------|----------| | 04:52:00 | BTCUSDT | long | $72,825.50 | $72,799.88 | $72,798.69 | | 08:55:00 | ETHUSDT | short | $2,233.56 | $2,233.69 | $2,233.69 | | 14:51:00 | ETHUSDT | long | $2,241.96 | $2,240.69 | $2,240.61 | | 14:52:00 | BTCUSDT | long | $72,707.15 | $72,672.34 | $72,672.22 | | 17:56:00 | ETHUSDT | short | $2,259.10 | $2,260.15 | $2,260.16 |

Position Summary

| ID | Symbol | Side | Entry Price | Size | Status | |----|--------|------|-------------|------|--------| | 1 | BTCUSDT | long | $72,825.50 | $100 | open | | 2 | ETHUSDT | short | $2,233.56 | $100 | closed | | 3 | ETHUSDT | long | $2,241.96 | $100 | closed | | 4 | ETHUSDT | short | $2,259.10 | $100 | open |

Completed Trades

| Trade ID | Position ID | Exit Price | P&L ($) | P&L (%) | Duration (sec) | |----------|-------------|------------|---------|---------|----------------| | 1 | 2 (ETH short) | $2,241.96 | -$0.48 | -0.48% | 21,360 | | 2 | 3 (ETH long) | $2,259.10 | +$0.66 | +0.66% | 11,100 |

Net P&L: +$0.19
Win Rate: 50% (1 of 2)
Average Trade: +$0.10

System Health

| Metric | Status | |--------|--------| | Uptime | ~18 hours continuous | | Price logs | 2,193 rows (BTC + ETH) | | DB size | 16 KB | | Signals | 5 generated | | Fills | 2 completed, 2 open positions | | Errors | None observed |

Observations

  1. Signal Frequency: The EMA9/50 1h strategy is generating 2-3 signals per symbol per day — higher frequency than the validated EMA10/50 daily strategy.

  2. ETH Dominance: All completed trades are ETH. BTC position remains open since 04:52 UTC (~17 hours).

  3. Short Performance: The first ETH short lost -0.48% due to price moving against the position before the next crossover signal.

  4. Long Performance: The ETH long gained +0.66% before the exit signal fired.

  5. Position Sizing: Fixed $100 notional per trade (conservative for $1,000 balance = 10% exposure).

Comparison to Validated Strategy

The current run.py uses EMA9/50 on 1h candles (crossover-based), while the validated Phase 0 strategy uses EMA10/50 on daily candles with RSI filter.

Key Differences:

  • Current: Higher frequency (hourly vs daily)
  • Current: No RSI filter, no volume check
  • Current: Exit on opposite crossover vs TP1/TP2/stop/RSI exit

Recommendation: The current system validates infrastructure. Strategy alignment to validated spec happens in subsequent milestones.

Risks Identified

  1. No stop-losses: Current system exits only on reverse crossover. No hard stop or RSI exit.
  2. BTC position duration: BTC long open for 17+ hours without exit — acceptable for trend-following but needs monitoring.
  3. Slippage model: Simple 2bps slippage applied; real execution may differ.

VERDICT

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

The paper trading infrastructure is operational and producing data. The strategy currently running (EMA9/50 1h crossover) is NOT the validated EMA10/50 daily strategy from Phase 0 research.

Required actions before Milestone 5 (real capital):

  1. Switch to validated EMA10/50 daily strategy with full entry/exit rules
  2. Implement proper risk management (hard stops, position sizing)
  3. Run 4+ weeks of paper trading with validated strategy
  4. Compare live paper results to backtest expectations

The system is healthy. The strategy needs alignment.

Signed: Agos autonomous review
Next Review: After 7 days of continuous operation (target: 2026-04-18)

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